Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters. They indicated he is willing to continue fighting if Kyiv and the West do not respond.
Three sources, familiar with discussions in Putin’s entourage, mentioned the Russian leader’s frustration with what he views as Western-backed attempts to block negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s decision to rule out talks.
“Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war,” said a senior Russian source with knowledge of top-level conversations in the Kremlin. He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Reuters spoke to five people who work or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds for this account. The fifth source did not comment on freezing the war at the current frontlines. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, responding to a request for comment, said the Kremlin chief had repeatedly made clear Russia was open to dialogue to achieve its goals, saying the country did not want “eternal war.”
Peskov said Russia had no need for mobilization and was instead recruiting volunteer contractors for the armed forces
Ukraine’s foreign and defense ministries did not respond to questions. The recent appointment of economist Andrei Belousov as Russia’s defense minister was seen by some Western military and political analysts as putting the Russian economy on a permanent war footing to win a protracted conflict. This appointment followed sustained battlefield pressure and territorial advances by Russia in recent weeks. However, the sources said Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia’s current momentum to end the war. They did not directly comment on the new defense minister.
Based on their knowledge of conversations in the Kremlin’s upper ranks, two sources said Putin believed the war’s gains so far were enough to present as a victory to the Russian people.
Europe’s largest ground conflict since World War Two has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides and led to sweeping Western sanctions on Russia’s economy. Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilization, which he did not want. One source, familiar with the Russian president, mentioned that his popularity dipped after the first mobilization in September 2022. The national call-up alarmed part of the population in Russia, prompting hundreds of thousands of draft-age men to leave the country. Polls showed Putin’s popularity falling by several points.
Peskov said Russia had no need for mobilization and was instead recruiting volunteer contractors for the armed forces. The prospect of a ceasefire, or even peace talks, currently seems remote. Zelenskiy has repeatedly said that peace on Putin’s terms is a non-starter. He has vowed to retake lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. He signed a decree in 2022 that formally declared any talks with Putin “impossible.” One source predicted no agreement could happen while Zelenskiy was in power unless Russia bypassed him and struck a deal with Washington. However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Kyiv last week, told reporters he did not believe Putin was interested in serious negotiations.
Ukraine is preparing for talks hosted by Switzerland next month
Ukraine is preparing for talks hosted by Switzerland next month aimed at unifying international opinion on how to end the war. Switzerland has not invited Russia. Moscow has said the talks are not credible without its presence.
Ukraine and Switzerland want Russian allies, including China, to attend. Speaking in China on May 17, Putin said Ukraine might use the Swiss talks to garner broader support for Zelenskiy’s demand for a total Russian withdrawal, which Putin said would be an imposed condition rather than a serious peace negotiation. The Swiss foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “We are ready for discussion. We never refused,” Putin said in China.
The Kremlin says it does not comment on the progress of what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine but has repeatedly said Moscow is open to talks based on “the new realities on the ground.” In response to questions for this story, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said any peace initiative must respect Ukraine’s “territorial integrity, within its internationally recognized borders” and described Russia as the sole obstacle to peace in Ukraine. “The Kremlin has yet to demonstrate any meaningful interest in ending its war, quite the opposite,” the spokesperson said. In the past, Kyiv has dismissed Russia’s purported readiness to talk as an attempt to shift the blame for the war onto it. Kyiv says Putin, whose team repeatedly denied he was planning a war before invading Ukraine in 2022, cannot be trusted to honor any deal. Both Russia and Ukraine have also said they fear the other side would use any ceasefire to re-arm.
Kyiv and its Western backers are banking on a $61 billion U.S. aid package and additional European military aid to reverse what Zelenskiy described to Reuters this week as “one of the most difficult moments” of the full-scale war. Along with ammunition shortages after U.S. delays in approving the package, Ukraine has admitted it is struggling to recruit enough troops and last month lowered the draft age to 25 from 27.
Putin’s insistence on securing any battlefield gains in a deal is non-negotiable
Putin’s insistence on securing any battlefield gains in a deal is non-negotiable, all the sources suggested. Putin would, however, be ready to settle for the current territory and freeze the conflict at the current frontlines, four sources said. “Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true,” one of them said, giving their own analysis. Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial parts of four Ukrainian regions he formally incorporated into Russia in September 2022, but without full control of any of them. Such an arrangement would fall short of the goals Moscow set for itself at the time when it said the four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—now belonged to it entirely.
Peskov said there could be no question of handing back the four regions, which were now permanently part of Russia according to its constitution. Another factor influencing the Kremlin chief’s view that the war should end is that the longer it drags on, the more battle-hardened veterans return to Russia, dissatisfied with post-war job and income prospects, potentially creating social tensions, said one source who has worked with Putin.
‘Russia will push further’
In February, three Russian sources told Reuters the United States rejected a previous Putin suggestion of a ceasefire to freeze the war. In the absence of a ceasefire, Putin wants to take as much territory as possible to increase pressure on Ukraine while seeking to exploit unexpected opportunities to acquire more, three sources said. Russian forces control around 18% of Ukraine and this month pushed into the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
Putin is counting on Russia’s larger population compared to Ukraine to sustain superior manpower even without mobilization, bolstered by unusually generous pay for those who sign up. “Russia will push further,” the source who has worked with Putin said Putin will slowly conquer territories until Zelenskiy offers to stop, the source said, adding that the Russian leader had expressed to aides that the West would not provide enough weapons, weakening Ukraine’s morale. U.S. and European leaders have said they will support Ukraine until its security and sovereignty are guaranteed. NATO countries and allies say they are accelerating weapon deliveries.
“Russia could end the war at any time by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine, instead of continuing to launch brutal attacks against Ukraine’s cities, ports, and people every day,” the State Department said in response to a question about weapon supplies. All five sources said Putin had told advisers he had no designs on NATO territory, reflecting his public comments on the matter. Two sources cited Russian concerns about the growing danger of escalation with the West, including nuclear escalation, over the Ukraine standoff. The State Department said the United States had not adjusted its nuclear posture, nor seen any sign that Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon. “We continue to monitor the strategic environment and remain ready,” the spokesperson said.