By the time 2100 rolls around, the almost 30,000 cities that make up the American landscape might seem very different. According to a recent study, by the end of the century, the population of over half of these cities is expected to fall, with a loss of 12–23%.
According to ScienceAlert, these changes, which are impacted by both human actions and natural forces driven by climate change, present serious problems that go beyond city limits.
From large to aging populations
According to the study, it is increasingly likely that population dynamics in future cities will change, leading to the emergence of dispersed, thinning, or spreading populations.
Although total desertion is not the intended result, the researchers warn that these changes could present hitherto unseen difficulties if municipal authorities and town planners do not adjust to the changing requirements of the populace.
Concerns have been raised over the potential disruption of essential services including electricity, clean water, internet access, and transportation due to the expected reduction in population.
Grocery store closures can lead to food deserts and neglected infrastructure in declining towns that deprive people of basic resources—akin to the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi in 2021—are possible outcomes of cities shrinking and populations aging.
Transportation is one of the main factor
The researchers’ investigation was first limited to Illinois’ transportation issues, but it was later extended to all 50 states. The study challenges the traditional focus on larger urban centers by providing a holistic picture of the likely future of cities using data from the US census and climate scenarios. Depending on climate scenarios, the current rate of population loss in US cities is 43%, and by 2100, that number might increase to 64%.
Based on projections, cities in the Northeast and Midwest are expected to see the greatest rate of depopulation. Even states that are now growing, like Texas and Utah, might see major population losses in some of their cities by the year 2100.
The methodology does not explore the intricate elements driving these estimates, such as internal migration or social and economic pressures, and instead recognizes the inherent uncertainty in projecting population patterns decades ahead of time.