According to Bloomberg, Mexico has recently surpassed China as the largest exporter to the United States. The news service used a complex technique that takes a 12-month rolling average of the share of US imports. But, in reality, America’s southern neighbor has held the title for the entire year of 2023. Mexico took the lead in the third quarter of 2022, based on a quarterly series evaluating trade on a balance of payments basis.
The trade relationship between the US and China is deteriorating, and Mexico has benefited
The two shows aren’t drastically different from one another. Bloomberg uses the most recent data, which is based on papers acquired by US Customs and Border Protection. Meanwhile, the balance of payments data is altered to be compatible with GDP figures, and it is produced quarterly rather than monthly. There are a few differences: the BOP data counts purchases of commodities abroad by the US military as imports, as do fuel purchases made in foreign ports by US air and ocean carriers; there are also a few subtractions.
Regardless of whose report is used, the narrative is essentially the same. The trade relationship between the United States and China is deteriorating, and Mexico has benefited as businesses seek out nations with friendlier regimes. There’s also a financial component to this story: one of the hottest currency pairs this year has been the Mexican peso vs. the Japanese yen MXNJPY, -0.11%, which has risen 28% this year. Meanwhile, the dollar has gained 5% against the offshore Chinese yuan USDCNH, or 0.07%.