When Donald Trump and Joe Biden take to the debate stage on Thursday night, it will be a reunion of sorts—though not exactly a friendly one. A current president has never before debated his predecessor, and the tension between these two men will be palpable on the CNN debate stage in Atlanta.
Trump has never conceded the 2020 election to President Biden. Days after his supporters attacked the US Capitol, he broke with tradition by refusing to attend his opponent’s inauguration. Now, as they face off again for the presidency, millions of Americans will be paying close attention for the first time in this election campaign. The stakes are high as both men try to convince voters they deserve their ballot in November.
An unusual evening
This debate will mark the first time Biden and Trump have appeared together since their contentious encounters four years ago. The initial debate in 2020 was filled with interruptions and Biden’s frustrated “Will you shut up, man?” demand. The second debate, delayed by Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, saw the two men not even shake hands.
Both men are out of practice, having not participated in any debate for nearly four years. Trump skipped the Republican primary debates on his way to becoming the party’s presumptive nominee earlier this year.
Incumbent presidents often struggle in their first re-election debate, usually due to being unaccustomed to being challenged after four years in office. In this case, both candidates might face that challenge. Unlike past debates, this one will be conducted in a cable television studio without a live audience, a request by the Biden campaign after a raucous Trump town hall forum hosted by CNN last year. The debate will also feature muted microphones during the opponent’s speaking time, potentially preventing the chaos of the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020.
The expectations game
Conservative commentators have set low expectations for Biden, characterizing him as senile and infirm. This has played into voter concerns about his age but also set a low bar for his performance, which he has exceeded in the past, including during his energetic State of the Union address in early March. Trump’s campaign officials recently tried to raise that bar, noting Biden’s effectiveness in the 2012 vice-presidential debate against then-congressman Paul Ryan.
Trump’s team has also spread claims that Biden will rely on “performance-enhancing drugs” during the debate, a notion vehemently denied by Biden’s team. Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said Trump was resorting to “lies” because he is “scared of being held accountable for his toxic agenda.”
Both candidates have something to prove. Biden needs to show he is not too old for the job, while Trump must prove he is not the “unlikable madman” that many perceive him to be. “It’s an opportunity for both of them, but also the risk is high,” said Mike Murphy, a long-time Republican political consultant.
The issues
Polling indicates voters give Trump better marks on the economy and immigration, while Biden is favored on abortion, healthcare, and the environment. The winner of Thursday’s debate could be the candidate who best lands memorable lines on areas of strength while defending his weaknesses.
Can Biden convince voters he shares their concerns about immigration but has been stymied by Republicans? Will Trump convince voters another term won’t lead to greater restrictions on abortion, given his appointment of three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn the federal right to the procedure?
Biden will need to make the case that the economy is better than voters think it is, while facing Trump’s attacks on soaring prices and high inflation. “We know that Joe Biden is going to try to blame everything on President Trump,” Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller said. “Americans know the difference between the Trump economy, which was great, and the Biden economy.”
Getting personal
The Biden campaign recently launched ads attacking Trump for his criminal felony conviction in a New York court, which has cost Trump support among independent voters. Trump is expected to face questions about this court case and could be drawn into a tirade against corrupt judges and rigged courts, which might alienate moderate voters.
Biden also has a personal court case to address. His son Hunter’s conviction on felony firearm charges could be a point of attack for Trump, who may use it to paint the Biden family as corrupt.
A long way to go
This debate is the earliest in modern US history, taking place before either candidate has become the formal nominee of their party. It could set the mood for the campaign, solidifying views about the candidates and defining the issues around November’s vote. However, the early timing means this event could be a distant memory by Election Day. Both candidates will have a chance to reset during their national conventions later in the summer, with another debate scheduled in September.
“The June debate is not a moment that we expect to define the trajectory of the election or move poll numbers in the near-term,” a senior Biden campaign aide told CBS, adding that voters will require “consistent time and effort.” This debate is the start of a marathon, not the end of the race.