In a dramatic turn of events, FBI agents raided the Soho apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan early Wednesday morning, just days after the prediction platform correctly forecasted Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The incident has ignited accusations of political retribution, drawing sharp criticism from Coplan and his supporters.
Allegations of political retaliation
According to reports from Axios and the New York Post, the 6:00 AM raid saw FBI agents confiscate electronic devices from Coplan’s residence. The move has prompted speculation about the motives behind the raid, with a Polymarket spokesperson suggesting it was an act of “obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election.”
The spokesperson emphasized Polymarket’s commitment to transparency, stating: “Polymarket is a fully transparent prediction market that helps everyday people better understand the events that matter most to them, including elections.”
Coplan criticizes Biden administration
Shayne Coplan, the 26-year-old founder of Polymarket, took to X (formerly Twitter) to express his dismay over the raid, directly criticizing the Biden administration. “It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents,” Coplan wrote.
He continued, underscoring Polymarket’s non-partisan stance: “We are deeply committed to being non-partisan, and today is no different. The incumbents should do some self-reflecting and recognize that taking a more pro-business, pro-startup approach may be what would have changed their fate this election.”
What is Polymarket?
Launched in 2020 by Coplan after leaving New York University, Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market. The platform allows users to wager on a wide range of topics, from politics to entertainment, by buying and selling shares based on their predictions of real-world events.
This year alone, Polymarket has processed over $3 billion in trading volume, according to Forbes. Initially, the platform only facilitated wagers in the form of the stablecoin USDC but recently expanded its payment options to include debit and credit cards.
“Polymarket effectively takes what otherwise would be an Internet yelling match and turns that into a market where the person who’s right wins,” Coplan explained in an interview with Forbes in August.
High-profile backing
Polymarket has garnered significant support from influential investors, raising $74 million from prominent figures, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Its advisory board features former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chairman Chris Giancarlo and renowned forecasting expert Nate Silver.
Unanswered questions
While it remains unclear whether Coplan or Polymarket is the primary focus of an ongoing investigation, the timing of the raid has led to heightened suspicions about potential political motivations. Calls for transparency and answers are growing, as the raid adds another layer of controversy to the already heated post-election landscape.
The incident has ignited a broader debate about the role of prediction markets in political forecasting and the implications of government actions against tech startups in the current political climate.