The United States is a thriving democracy of 330 million people, yet analysts predict that the 2024 US election for the next president will be elected by only a few thousand votes in an increasingly polarized country.
Landslide presidential elections were historically regular, but no candidate has won by double digits in the popular vote since Ronald Reagan carried 49 of the 50 states against Walter Mondale in 1984.
Forward four decades, and the battle for the White House appears more like a crapshoot, with most states’ outcomes known before a ballot is cast and contenders fighting for a few legitimately competitive states on Election Day.
“(It) strikes me that Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia will play particularly large roles in this election,” David Darmofal, vice chair of political science at the University of South Carolina, told AFP.
“So those suburban counties in Wisconsin, but also Milwaukee County, will be very important, as will Las Vegas suburbs and Clark County more generally, Maricopa County in Arizona, and Fulton County in Georgia as well as its surrounding counties such as Cobb and DeKalb.”
The electorate is less elastic in its preferences from election to election than it used to be
Whereas conservatives used to vote Democratic and even the occasional liberal would vote Republican, the present voter is considerably more tribal, according to Darmofal.
“It’s more difficult today to get so far behind as the Democrats were in 1984, or for parties to quickly lose support with such an ideologically sorted and more engaged electorate,” he said.
“The electorate is less elastic in its preferences from election to election than it used to be.”
According to the campaign group National Popular Vote, a dozen elections in the twentieth century were deemed landslides, but the six since have often been decided by fewer than 300,000 votes scattered across an average of three states.
“Elections are closer because the two parties have learned to use social media and micro-targeting to mobilize organized groups of voters, and they have learned to vilify opponents,” said Jeremi Suri, a public affairs and history professor at the University of Texas at Austin.
“This creates a divided two-sided debate, and it makes it hard for either side to build a consensus.”
According to Matt Shoemaker, a national security expert, and former intelligence officer, former President Donald Trump‘s massive reputation explains in part why voters have become more entrenched over the last decade.
“Everyone knows who he is and has an opinion about him which will severely limit the number of swing votes or people on the fence, unsure of what they think of him or for whom to vote,” he told AFP.
2024 US election: “Our best guess is yet another close and competitive presidential election next year”
In 2020, seven states were determined by less than three points: Arizona, the closest battleground state, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an influential political website produced by the University of Virginia, has listed the same four states as “toss-up” states in the 2024 cycle as Darmofal has.
Arizona, the most important Sun Belt battleground, where a critical mass of suburban Phoenix voters often makes the difference, was determined by roughly 10,000 votes, while Georgia was decided by less than 12,000 votes.
In four of the last six elections in Wisconsin, which is deep Trump country in the rural sections but Democrat-friendly in the Milwaukee suburbs, the margin was less than a point.
Nevada has been more solidly Democratic, with Trump losing to Hillary Clinton and then to Biden by 27,000 and 34,000 votes, respectively, but things are tightening up in the Silver State.
According to Crystal Ball managing director Kyle Kondik, the Democratic candidate, almost presumably Biden, will begin 2024 closer to the 270 “electoral votes” required under the state-by-state Electoral College system than his Republican opponent.
“But with few truly competitive states and a relatively high floor for both parties,” he added, “our best guess is yet another close and competitive presidential election next year.”