Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” has garnered a reputation for his uncanny ability to predict election results. With a track record of accurately predicting nine out of the past ten US presidential elections, Lichtman’s methodology has earned both praise and scrutiny. To predict the occupant of the Oval Office, Lichtman has devised what he calls the “13 keys to the White House,” a groundbreaking method that has revolutionized election forecasting.
Right now, a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election
These keys consist of a series of true or false questions that assess various factors such as economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Through meticulous analysis spanning historical data since Abraham Lincoln’s era, Mr. Lichtman has crafted a predictive model that goes beyond conventional methods used by traditional election analysts.
“I have not made a final prediction yet, but I do have a model for 13 keys to the White House that has been correct since the 1984 elections in a row – and the way it works is that if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (incumbent), they are predicted losers, and if fewer than six, then they are predicted winners.”
“Right now, a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He’s at the moment down by just two keys.”
Biden is expected to be challenged for a second time by Donald Trump, who is increasingly likely to be the Republican party’s face for the 2024 US presidential elections scheduled for November. With Biden enjoying the advantages of incumbency and a relatively uncontested primary, Mr. Lichtman sees formidable odds for his challenger.
The 13 keys to the White House, as devised by Allan Lichtman
- Party Mandate: Post-midterm elections, the incumbent party secures more US House of Representatives seats than in the previous midterms.
- Nomination Contest: There’s no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.
- Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.
- Third-party Factor: There’s no noteworthy third-party or independent campaign.
- Short-term Economic Stability: The economy doesn’t face a recession during the election period.
- Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth equals or surpasses the average growth of the preceding two terms.
- Policy Shift: The incumbent administration enacts major alterations in national policy.
- Social Stability: There’s no prolonged social unrest throughout the term.
- Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.
- Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures occur in foreign or military affairs under the incumbent administration.
- Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.
- Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party’s candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.
- Challenger Appeal: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
US voters see Trump as more favourable for the economy
US voters see Trump as more favourable for the economy compared to President Biden, as indicated by a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey. In this three-day poll, 41 percent of participants favoured Trump’s economic approach over Biden’s, while 34 percent favoured Biden’s. The remaining respondents either expressed uncertainty or felt neither candidate had a superior stance. However, Mr. Lichtman cautioned against placing too much weight on early polls.
“Early polls have zero predictive value. They are momentary snapshots, for example, they say, ‘If the elections were held today, this is where the candidates stand’. Early polls often lead you astray,” Mr Lichtman told NDTV.
“As we saw in 2016, when I predicted Donald Trump’s victory contrary to the polls, or in 1988, when George H. W. Bush, as late as May and June of the election year, was 17 points behind his opponent Mike Dukakis and went on to win with a 25-point swing. That’s why I tell everyone, to get the polls, to get the pundits, keep your eye on the big picture as gauged by the keys,” he added. Mr. Lichtman’s predictive prowess faced its most significant test in the tumultuous 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. While he forecasted a victory for Gore, the controversial outcome cast a shadow over his prediction.