New Survey Reveals Increasing Job Search Activity
In a startling revelation, more than 28% of Americans are actively searching for new job opportunities, marking the highest rate in a decade, according to a recent labor market survey. This surge in job seekers underscores a growing pessimism about the economic outlook, despite other data suggesting a more stable situation.
Survey findings: Rising job search rates
The New York Federal Reserve‘s latest poll of consumers disclosed that 28.4% of respondents are on the hunt for new employment, the highest reading since March 2014 and a notable increase from 19.4% a year ago. This figure includes both unemployed individuals and those currently employed but seeking new roles.
The data comes from the New York Fed’s thrice-annual Survey of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey, adding to the mounting evidence of a deteriorating U.S. economic outlook. While the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, up from its post-pandemic low of 3.5%, the indicators of economic stress are becoming more apparent.
After a period of robust post-pandemic growth, tempered by surging inflation, signs are emerging that the U.S. economy is entering a significantly softer phase.
“The vibes have gotten worse,” said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a labor research group. He attributes the survey results to the experiences of respondents or their social networks facing difficulties in finding work. “It’s not like people should be panicked — this is not like 2008, or Covid — but, given an ordinary person’s balance of risks, it probably is a little higher,” Berger added.
Job loss concerns
The survey also highlighted a record high in the expectation of job loss. The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4%, up from 3.9% a year ago, the highest level ever recorded since the survey’s inception in 2014.
Despite these increasingly alarming data points, economic forecasters maintain that a full-blown recession, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, remains unlikely. Berger pointed out that layoffs are still low, and the employment rate for individuals aged 25 to 54 stands at an all-time high of 80.9%. Overall labor force participation has remained stable at just under 63%, and the rate of job openings to positions remains above pre-pandemic levels at 4.9%.
Mixed economic signals: Stability amid slowdown
“The U.S. economy is doing just fine with steady growth,” wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management financial group, in a note to clients on Saturday. He cited additional “steady” data in restaurant and travel bookings, as well as credit card and bank lending. However, Berger acknowledged the economy’s ongoing slowdown, stating, “It’s hard to find data moving in the right direction. The best you can say is that some data are in a good spot and not getting worse. But most data points are on average moving slowly in the wrong direction.”
Demographic breakdown: Older, less educated, and lower-income respondents are most affected
The New York Fed’s survey identified that the increase in job searchers was most pronounced among respondents older than 45, those without a college degree, and those with an annual household income of less than $60,000.
Rick Goins, a 64-year-old Houston-area resident with decades of communications experience, exemplifies those struggling to find new work. He has not held a full-time role since 2016, moving between contractor gigs. During the pandemic, he secured a contractor role that lasted nearly two years, but that ended in February.
“I’m not old enough to retire, and not old enough for Medicare,” Goins told NBC News. “I want to keep my skills up … I’ve got a lot left in the tank.” He expressed frustration with being “ghosted” by employers during the interview process and is concerned that ageism is affecting his job search. “They want someone who’s 25 years old with 25 years of experience and who’ll take a $25 (an hour) salary,” he quipped.
As the economic landscape continues to evolve, the increasing number of Americans searching for new job opportunities serves as a critical indicator of the underlying challenges and uncertainties facing the labor market.