As Russian rockets began to fly over his Ukrainian territory, Nazar Volianiuk, his wife, and three children hurriedly packed their belongings, climbed into two cars, and escaped to the Polish border.
They waited for two terrifying days in line at a jammed crossing, running for cover in a wayside forest amid the screams of air raid sirens.
Volianiuk, 31, and his wife Natalia, 32, assumed it would be safe to return to their home in Lutsk, Ukraine, after a few months, like many others who left Russia’s invasion a year ago.
Volianiuk is now ensconced in a clean suburban apartment outside of Chicago, with a cable company job, young children in school, and a supportive community – and no desire to return to Ukraine, even when the conflict ends.
“No chance,” he said, drinking tea in his Chicago apartment on a recent day. “We want to stay here.”
More than 8 million migrants are scattered across Europe, the United States, and beyond one year after Russia’s incursion triggered Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II. As the turmoil they fled deepens, so do their new roots.
Among new jobs, languages, and lives, a significant question looms: not when, but whether.
How many eventually return to Ukraine is a question with significant implications: for refugees, including those with temporary immigration status; for the host, countries experiencing tensions as new residents add to their workforce while straining housing and schools; and for Ukraine’s ability to rebuild its country and economy.
UN survey of 43 countries indicated that 81% of refugees aspired to return to Ukraine one day
A September UN survey of 43 countries indicated that 81% of refugees aspired to return to Ukraine one day, however, the majority said they planned to stay in their home countries for the time being.
Experts predict that as the war carries on, the desire to return will fade.
“The longer it lasts, the greater chance that people really start to envision and build up a life (outside of Ukraine) and not go back,” said Hanne Beirens, who heads the Migration Policy Institute of Europe.
A European Commission official estimated last year that up to 3 million, Ukrainians might choose to stay in other European nations, while other estimates put the overall number of Ukrainians settling overseas at 5 million or perhaps more.
Nevertheless, accurate forecasting is challenging given the unknowns as the war approaches a critical juncture, including an apparent fresh Russian attack and a recent survey showing falling public support in the United States for military aid to Ukraine.
For the time being, millions of displaced Ukrainians living abroad, including more than a quarter-million in the United States, are left in limbo as they consider their options.
“We are hearing, ‘Yes, We’d like to go back, but what are we going back to?” said Dylanna Grasinger, director of U.S. field offices for the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants, which provides services to Ukrainians. “One day it’s yes, the next day it’s no.”
A Bucha survivor looks back in Germany
Diana Guloz was getting ready for a yoga class in her small German town on a recent February day, a welcome break from caring for her young kid and the scars of war.
Guloz, a 35-year-old language teacher from Kyiv, fled to Bucha after the war began, only to find herself in the midst of a struggle that led to Russia’s control of the town.
She spent a harrowing few weeks in a city without electricity or gas, praying in a cellar as combat raged around her, fearful of being shot or raped every day. Following a rash of civilian deaths, war crimes investigations were launched.
When Russian troops ultimately retreated, she went to Germany, one of the European countries that provided temporary refuge as well as assistance with housing, health care, language classes, and job permits.
According to an October study conducted in Germany for the research firm EconPol Europe, 21% of respondents indicated they had no plans to return to Ukraine, while 27% were unsure. Only 6% are expected to return shortly.
Refugee activists in Poland report increased difficulties. Poland has taken in 1.5 million Ukrainians, the most of any country, with many receiving assistance ranging from hot meals at the border to accommodation, as well as health insurance, education, and other advantages.
Some had ties in Poland, which has long been a destination for Ukrainian migrant workers. While the inflow has increased the labor force, it has also put pressure on housing and education.
In March, refugees will be required to pay half of government housing bills after four months, with the percentage gradually increasing. Yet, according to one poll, 27% of Ukrainians intend to stay permanently, even after the war.
Ukrainians in Minnesota face aid and uncertainty
She was a university student in Ukraine when the war began, and she now works with ASIU, which provides full relocation support for Ukrainian sponsors. So far, she is one of more than 50 people who have arrived in Minneapolis with the help of the non-profit.
Almost 110,000 Ukrainians have arrived in the United States as part of the Biden Administration’s Uniting for Ukraine program, which provides humanitarian parole to displaced Ukrainians who have a sponsor in the United States. According to the Department of Homeland Security, around 35,000 people have been cleared for entry.
In addition, since March 24 of last year, 151,000 Ukrainians have entered the United States through various immigration avenues, according to a DHS official.
As part of Uniting for Ukraine, the United States has received over 200,000 requests from individuals, families, churches, nonprofits, and other organizations committing to support Ukrainian parolees.
While it has generally worked well, some people have been overwhelmed by the needs, according to Chris George, the executive director of Integrated Refugee & Immigrant Services, a refugee resettlement group in Connecticut.
Several of the newly arrived Ukrainians in Minneapolis, many of whom are well-educated, work for companies such as Home Depot, allowing them to transfer money to relatives in Ukraine.
What the future may hold for Ukrainians
According to Beirens, Ukrainian leaders are increasingly concerned about how a prolonged war may affect their workforce and ability to reconstruct. Because of labor shortages in Europe, healthcare workers and college lecturers may be able to obtain better-paying jobs.
According to a Crisis Group report, the war has already destroyed millions of jobs in Ukraine and caused tax income to plunge. According to the World Bank, Ukraine’s weakening economy might push the majority of the population below the poverty line.
He estimated that if the war ended today, it would take a decade to reconstruct from the destruction of houses, businesses, and energy infrastructure.