Allied Market Research’s forecast announced Monday that the global market for nuclear missiles and bombs will reach $126 billion in 10 years. It is up nearly 73 % from the current 2020 levels, as Russian aggression in Ukraine boosts military investment.
The market’s worth would increase by 72.6 % from the Portland-based research firm’s projection of almost $73 billion in 2020 when COVID-19 delays and funding reallocated to help the health crisis “seriously affected” the defense sector.
The growth in geopolitical conflicts and larger military spending will likely push the figure up at a compounded annual rate of 4.5% until 2030.
Last week, US President Joe Biden proposed a record-breaking national defense budget for peacetime. The focus will be on modernizing the nuclear “triad” of ballistic missile submarines, bombers, and land-based missiles.
No winners in a nuclear war
Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) accounted for a quarter of the market in 2020. But the survey anticipated that demand for small nuclear warheads would fuel quicker growth in these sectors. Small nuclear weapons can be quickly deployed by aircraft and land-based missiles,
North America accounted for more than half of the global nuclear market in 2020. But the survey predicted that the Asia-Pacific area will experience the greatest increase. It is due to India, Pakistan, and China’s nuclear weapons-building activities.
“However, international treaties and consortiums discourage nuclear testing,” the firm said in a report summary. “This hampers the market growth.”
The report predicted that as non-nuclear proliferation treaties and national efforts gain traction, the number of warheads in storage or awaiting dismantlement will rise.
However, due to investment in nuclear arsenals and new warhead sales, active weapons accounted for the “lion’s share”. It is more than two-thirds of the market in 2020, according to the report.
At the start of the year, Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States released a joint declaration. It stated that there could be no winners in a nuclear war and that it must not happen.