There is encouraging news for those who enjoyed or missed the spectacular aurora borealis last weekend: more displays are likely on the horizon. The extensive sunspot cluster that sent energy and gas toward Earth will return to face us in about two weeks.
Experts suggest it will likely remain large and complex enough to produce additional explosions that could impact Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in more Northern Lights. Since last Saturday, the Sun has continued to emit increased radiation, with a massive solar flare on Tuesday disrupting high-frequency radio communications globally.
The Sun is nearing the “solar maximum” phase of an 11-year cycle
This active sunspot won’t be the last. The sun is nearing the “solar maximum” phase of an 11-year cycle when its activity peaks. When the Sun’s magnetic poles switch, it generates sunspots that emit material, creating space weather. This is the 25th solar cycle since systematic sunspot observations began in 1755. Initially expected to be quiet, scientists now say it appears more intense than predicted. The cycle’s intensity is gauged by the number of sunspots, explains Krista Hammond, a space weather forecaster at the Met Office.
However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate the strength of the storms when they hit Earth, she adds. The Sun’s poles are predicted to flip anytime between now and 2025. The recent geomagnetic storm was a one-in-30-year event, the largest since 2003, according to Sean Elvidge, a space environment professor at the University of Birmingham.
It was triggered by at least five coronal mass ejections (CMEs) – eruptions of magnetic fields and solar storms – from the Sun in quick succession. These took about 18 hours to reach Earth, where they interacted with our magnetic field. This magnetosphere protects us from intense radiation – without it, life on Earth wouldn’t be possible. The storm was powerful enough to receive a G5 alert rating, the highest from forecasters at the Met Office and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Reports of the storm’s impacts on global communications, power grids, and GPS have surfaced. These events aren’t just about beautiful lights, explains Ian Muirhead, a space systems researcher at the University of Manchester: “We’re much more reliant on technology now than during the last major storm in 2003. Many services depend on space – often unnoticed—binding much of our economy together.” Elon Musk noted on X (formerly Twitter) that the storm put his Starlink satellites providing internet “under a lot of pressure.”
An ESA spokesperson mentioned voltage spikes in the Starlinks. Satellites used for GPS and navigation also experienced signal disturbances as extra radiation reached Earth, ESA said. A San Francisco-Paris flight was rerouted to avoid stronger Arctic radiation, Dr. Elvidge explained. Farmers using high-precision GPS tractors reported issues, and John Deere warned users about potential outages.Sen’s satellite, which films Earth in high definition, was put into an “idle” state for four days, missing events like the Canadian wildfires, the company said. Power grids also experienced stress from the additional current. In New Zealand, similar to the UK’s grid, the national grid turned off some circuits to prevent equipment damage.
The UK National Grid reported no impact on electricity transmission. The Energy Networks Association, representing UK electricity network operators, took precautions like ensuring extra backup generation for any voltage fluctuations. During a strong solar storm, aurora borealis can be visible further south than usual. Space weather is not a distant threat – the government views extreme space weather risks as greater than those from earthquakes or wildfires. On its national risk register, which also includes health pandemics like COVID-19, extreme space weather rates a “four” in terms of likelihood and impact. “One” represents the lowest risk, and “five” is the highest. A stronger storm than last weekend’s could cause fatalities and injuries due to power outages, according to the register.
Space weather forecasting is still developing compared to atmospheric weather
“Mobile backup power generation would be necessary in some areas for a prolonged period while damaged transformers are replaced, which could take several months,” it cautions. Urban power could be restored within hours, but remote coastal areas might face months-long waits for transformer replacements. The worst-case scenario, known as a “Carrington-level event,” refers to a massive solar storm in 1859 that caused such a bright aurora that people thought it was daylight.
The generated current allowed Canadian telegraph operators to transmit even with equipment that was manually disconnected. Fires erupted from damaged gear. Such an event today could be catastrophic. “The consensus is that a solar superstorm is inevitable, a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if?’” according to a Royal Academy of Engineering report.
However, forecasting and preparation can help, explains Dr. Elvidge. Forecasters like Krista Hammond monitor satellites around the clock for solar activity. They issued warnings to governments and critical infrastructure providers about last weekend’s CMEs approaching Earth hours in advance.” Our White House situation room is informed about it. Messages come through emergency channels to local governments,” says Shawn Dahl, a NOAA space weather forecaster. This forecasting and preparation may explain why, despite severe warnings, the storm last weekend had few obvious impacts.”
“We are relatively well-prepared for these events,” says Mr. Muirhead. Local councils and emergency services practice scenarios to ensure services like ambulances can still function without GPS. However, power supply issues are sensitive, with commercial implications, and companies may be reluctant to disclose network stress. Space weather forecasting is still developing compared to atmospheric weather, but as we learn more about the Sun and launch more equipment into space, predicting the next superstorm will improve.