In 2022, Kim Jong Un set new records for missile launches, reduced the bar for nuclear war, and disregarded international sanctions.
This week, as his governing Workers’ Party completes a significant year-end policy-setting conference, Kim Jong Un is anticipated to present his plans for 2023. The North Korean leader promised to bolster the military at the summit, but specifics won’t be made public until state media reports on the meeting around New Year’s Day. The message from last year was close to 8,000 words long.
Kim Jong Un will probably continue to hone his capacity to conduct a credible nuclear strike against the USanditsallies given the lack of danger of additional sanctions and current plans to further build weapons such as drones, submarines, and missiles.
According to Rachel Minyoung Lee, a former analyst for the CIA’s Open Source Enterprise who spent almost two decades working on the country’s long-term goal of normalizing relations with Washington as a buffer against China and Russia, Kim Jong Un’s recent actions point to a wider shift away from the country’s long-term goal.
In 2017, in response to North Korea’s nuclear tests, then-President Donald Trump vowed “fire and fury,” and American officials discussed a “bloody nose” strike on North Korea. He is banking that this would help prevent another conflict with the US in the same manner.
Nuclear Test
Along with his efforts to downsize warheads for tactical weapons to hit South Korea and Japan, which are home to the majority of US forces in Asia, Kim Jong Un also looks prepared to carry out his first nuclear test since 2017. Russia and China, who both have veto power at the UN Security Council, are now extremely unlikely to approve any further sanctions against North Korea, as they did in 2017.
“Pyongyang doesn’t see any chance or need of improvement in relations with the US or South Korea at this point, so they are ratcheting up tensions to create a pretext to conduct their seventh nuclear test,” said Lee Sang-Keun, director of strategic research at Seoul’s Institute for National Security Strategy.
Russian and North Korean rail trade has been suspended since early 2020.
The US has claimed that Russia may potentially be providing financial support to North Korea by buying weaponry for use in Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. Pyongyang has called the claim untrue, but it has also restored its lone train connection with Russia that was cut off because of Covid-19 over three years ago.
In addition to refusing US efforts to restart nuclear disarmament negotiations, Kim Jong Un sent his daughter to witness the launch of an ICBM in November, sending a message that the Cold War’s only remaining unbroken family dynasty will depend on nuclear weapons to survive.
‘Slap on the Wrist’
In the meantime, Kim Jong Un’s propaganda machine has ramped up to show the North Korean leader as being concerned for his people. This year, it has published about 20 reports on its official Korean Central News Agency about the advancements made in housing construction, which it claimed was a sign of the “loving care” of Kim’s ruling party.
Soo Kim, a policy analyst with the Rand Corp., said that even while Kim Jong Un may not have seen the US president this year, “he was still able to get away with a record number of weapons tests without more than a slap on the wrist.”
