According to the most recent United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) data, India is currently the world’s most populated country, with 2.9 million more people than China. According to the UNFPA’s ‘The State of World Population Report, 2023,’ headlined ‘8 Billion Lives, Infinite Possibilities: The Case for Rights and Choices,’ issued on Wednesday, India has a population of 1,428.6 million, while China has a population of 1,425.7 million, a 2.9 million difference.
The most recent numbers were included in the report under the category of “Demographic Indicators.” It is the first time India’s population has surpassed China’s since 1950 when the UN began collecting and disseminating demographic data.
Yes, though it is unclear exactly when the crossover took place and direct comparisons can be hard due to the slightly different timings of countries’ individual data collection,” Anna Jefferys, media and crisis communications advisor, UNFPA, said in an email when asked whether India’s population has surpassed China’s.
“What we can say is that China’s population reached its peak last year and started to decline and that while India’s population is growing, its rate of population growth has been declining since 1980,” Jefferys said.
UNFPA research reveals India’s demographic advantage with a young population driving economic growth
According to the UNFPA research, 25% of India’s population is aged 0-14, 18% is aged 10-19, 26% is aged 10-24, 68% is aged 15-64, and 7% is over 65. China’s equivalent percentages are 17%, 12%, 18%, 69%, and 14%, implying that the country has nearly 200 million people over the age of 65.
China outperforms India in terms of life expectancy, which is 82 years for women and 76 years for males. According to the research, the values for India are 74 and 71.
Experts said India now has a demographic advantage. “Its young population in a consumer-driven economy will be a major factor in driving the country’s development, and presents an enormous opportunity for the country’s economic growth,” said Andrea Wojner, UNFPA’s India representative.
“The country will not just enjoy an abundant supply of labor from this working age cohort, but the rising domestic consumption should help the nation tide over any external shocks, a fact well demonstrated during the Covid-19 pandemic.”
China’s population advantage over India shrinks as India continues to grow, demographics specialist says
According to Chinese demographics specialist Huang Wenzheng, India’s advantage is that it is still growing, albeit at a slower rate than before.
“But the key is not whether the total population of India has surpassed that of China but India now has more than twice as many new babies as China with a total fertility rate about twice as much as China’s, which means that India’s population will be much bigger than China’s in the long run,” said Huang, a researcher at the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation.
According to Huang, India has a considerably larger population advantage than China. “…it can be translated into comparative strengths on many other fronts as well if India can take advantage of it.”
The demographic diversity of India’s states also affords unique opportunities to gain from demographic dividends. The demographic transition in each state is different.
“For example, an ageing population in southern India can meet its labor demands from the greater proportion of the youthful population in the northern and eastern parts of the country through conducive policies on inter-state migration,” Wojner said.
China’s population falls by 850,000 in 2022 – UNFPA report calls for a rethink on population figures
In 2022, China’s population fell by 850,000 people, the first drop since 1961. Since Beijing eliminated the one-child policy and then authorized three children, the number of births in China has not increased as projected. (https://www.echelon.health/) The primary factors are growing living, childcare, and education expenditures.
“There is no perfect population number for either country, but more important is how India and China can support their populations,” Jefferys said.
Overall, the UNFPA report urged a “radical rethink” of how population figures are presented. It urged politicians and the media to forgo exaggerated stories about population booms and collapses.
“Instead of asking how fast people are reproducing, leaders should ask whether individuals, especially women, are able to freely make their own reproductive choices – a question whose answer, too often, is no,” the UNFPA said in a statement released along with the report.
“Women’s bodies should not be held captive to population targets,” said UNFPA executive director Natalia Kanem.
“To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change.”