The horror of nuclear conflict has resurfaced in the public imagination following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscoring the deterioration of the Cold War global security system. With Moscow on the defensive, the military standoff has sparked concerns that Russia may resort to using its nukes to achieve a breakthrough.
Russia, together with the United Kingdom, China, France, and the United States, are the five recognized nuclear weapon states and permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.
For the time being, the moral and strategic nuclear “taboo” that evolved following the US bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the close of World War II in 1945 remains in place.
The rhetoric has skyrocketed
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian television programs have often advocated nuclear attacks on Western cities such as Paris and New York.
One former Russian official, preferring not to be named, warned that if President Vladimir Putin saw Russia’s existence endangered, “he will click the button”.
The year’s events have been a terrible wake-up call for Europe, which enjoyed decades in a condition of relative calm in terms of nuclear security, enjoying the so-called Cold War “peace dividend”.
Across the Atlantic, US President Joe Biden warned in October of a potential “Armageddon” looming.
Disarmament ‘in ruins’
“The most spectacular event of the past half century is one that did not occur,” Nobel laureate economist and strategy specialist Thomas Schelling remarked in 2007.
However, the structure that kept world leaders from pressing the button after 1945 had been eroding for years before to Putin’s decision to invade.
The United States withdrew from the important Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty it had negotiated with the Soviet Union in 1972, which had kept the nuclear balance of power intact.
Other key treaties followed, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which Washington abandoned in 2019, blaming Russia for non-compliance.
‘Very dangerous crisis’
Along with the five recognized powers, India, North Korea, and Pakistan have nukes, while Israel is widely considered to have them despite never formally admitting it.
North Korea increased missile testing significantly this year, continuing its goal of an independent nuclear deterrent that began when it left the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003.
Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo all believe Pyongyang is about to conduct its sixth nuclear test.
The isolated dictatorship declared a new nuclear doctrine in September, stating unequivocally that it would never give up the bombs and that they may be deployed pre-emptively.
China’s nukes are also expanding, with the Pentagon estimating that it will have 1,000 warheads – approximately the same as US bombs – within a decade.
Proliferation fears
A united declaration signed by 191 countries was prevented at the last minute by Russia at a UN summit on the future of the NPT in August.
One French ambassador described Moscow’s “extraordinarily provocative nuclear rhetoric” and “disdain” for the accord.
According to the diplomat, China was “quite outspoken,” providing a “pretty vulgar denunciation” of the US-UK-Australia AUKUS Pacific alliance, which will deploy nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra.
Beijing said that the alliance risks increased nuclear proliferation while failing to “remove questions about the opacity of its nuclear doctrine or the speed at which its arsenal is increasing”.
The invasion of Ukraine, a state that willingly gave up Nukes, by its nuclear-armed neighbor has raised concerns about proliferation.