The first round of the French National Assembly elections on Sunday has raised the possibility of a far-right government for the first time since World War II. However, in France, the electoral process is not straightforward. The mandatory second round for constituencies without clear mandates could shift the outcome, providing a glimmer of hope for President Emmanuel Macron, whose coalition finished third after Sunday’s vote on June 30.
Current situation and future scenarios
Exit polls indicate that the far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, secured 34 percent of the votes. President Macron’s centrist alliance, Together, came in third with 20.3 percent, trailing the Left-Green coalition New Popular Front (NFP), which garnered 29 percent. While final numbers are pending, the far-right is optimistic about securing enough seats to form a government.
If 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protégé and RN leader, becomes prime minister, Macron could become a lame-duck president for the remainder of his term.
Macron’s potential escape routes
Two key developments are underway. On the ground, leftist and centrist supporters are protesting against the far-right, aiming to highlight the dangers of a far-right government and rally support for alternative outcomes. They hope this will increase voter turnout in the second round and prevent a significant shift in French politics towards the right.
Alliance-building: Macron’s last option?
Macron could attempt to forge electoral alliances with other parties to create an anti-far-right coalition. According to French election rules, constituencies where no candidate received more than 50% of the vote will hold a second round on Sunday. The top two candidates, along with anyone who received at least 12.5% of registered votes, will proceed to the second round.
This year, up to 80 seats are expected to go to a second round, the highest number since 1997, which saw 76 seats contested in the second round. Traditionally, second rounds are between two main parties or blocs, but this time, many constituencies may see triangular contests between the left, centrist, and far-right parties. With the RN holding the largest vote share from the first round, they might have an edge in the second round as well.
However, centrists and leftists have a strategic option: one front could withdraw its candidate to boost the other’s chances, forming a united front against the far-right. Macron’s challenge is to convince leftist candidates to step down in favor of centrist candidates, and vice versa.
Key players and potential kingmakers
The NFP alliance, consisting of four parties, has agreed in principle to withdraw its candidates from seats where the RN is leading or where the NFP candidate is third. The question remains whether Macron will reciprocate in constituencies where his coalition’s candidates are third.
Macron has described the NFP as an “extreme” left coalition and has been hesitant to show flexibility. While Prime Minister Gabriel Attal supports the idea of third-placed candidates from Macron’s coalition withdrawing, neither Macron nor his candidates have committed to this strategy as of yet.
Polls reveal mixed willingness among voters to block the far-right. An Ipsos poll indicates that 87% of NFP voters are ready to support other candidates to prevent an RN victory, compared to 62% of Together coalition voters. An Odoxa poll found that only 41% are willing to block RN, with 47% ready to block NPF, and 44% willing to block Together from winning.
In the coming days, Macron will need to negotiate with individual party leaders, including those he criticized during the campaign, to broker deals on a constituency-by-constituency basis. Success will depend on how willing he and other leaders, such as NFP’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are to collaborate.