The United Nations issued a warning on Friday, suggesting that this year, influenced by El Nino, might surpass the record-breaking temperatures observed in 2023. The organization emphasized the need for significant reductions in emissions to address climate change.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, reported that each month from June to December in the previous year set new monthly temperature records. This trend is anticipated to persist due to the warming impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected a one in three chance that 2024 could be warmer than 2023, with a 99 percent certainty that 2024 will rank among the top five warmest years. Gavin Schmidt, NASA climatologist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, estimated a 50-50 chance of it being warmer or slightly cooler. He noted potential “mysterious” changes in Earth’s climate systems, awaiting further data for confirmation or refutation.
In 2023 July and August were recorded as the hottest months ever
The WMO weather and climate agency confirmed July and August of the previous year as the two hottest months ever recorded, officially declaring 2023 as the warmest year on record by a substantial margin. The annual average global temperature in 2023 was reported as 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
Highlighting the goals set by the 2015 Paris Climate Accords to limit global warming, the WMO emphasized the need to stay below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an aspiration for 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.
Celeste Saulo, the WMO’s new secretary-general, cautioned about the intensifying influence of El Nino, which emerged in mid-2023. El Nino, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with increased global heat, is expected to further elevate temperatures in 2024. Saulo noted that the transition from cooling La Nina to warming El Nino in 2023 contributed to the rise in temperatures and suggested that 2024 could be even hotter given El Nino’s usual impact after it peaks.
The biggest challenge to humanity
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) highlighted that the global surface temperature in 2023 exceeded the 20th-century average by 1.18 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record-holder, 2016, by an unprecedented margin of 0.15 degrees Celsius. Specific regions, including the Arctic, northern North America, central Asia, the North Atlantic, and the eastern tropical Pacific, experienced notably elevated temperatures.
Celeste Saulo, the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), emphasized that climate change has become “the biggest challenge that humanity faces.” In November, a WMO report indicated that concentrations of the primary heat-trapping greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—reached record levels in 2022. Preliminary data suggested a continued increase in these levels in 2023.
Saulo unequivocally attributed the escalating impact of climate change to human activities, marking it as a significant and urgent global concern.
‘Catastrophic future’ ahead
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that humanity’s actions are causing the Earth irreparable harm, with 2023 serving as a preview of the catastrophic future awaiting if immediate action is not taken. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported a consistent trend of each decade since the 1980s being warmer than the preceding one, with the warmest nine years recorded all occurring after 2015.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service presented its 2023 temperature findings, while NOAA and NASA released their assessments concurrently with the WMO on Friday. The WMO, consolidating data from six major international datasets, offers a comprehensive and authoritative temperature assessment. The organization highlighted that the 10-year average temperature from 2014 to 2023 was 1.20 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
Despite the possibility of Earth’s average surface temperature surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius mark in 2024, it does not necessarily indicate a failure to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming below that threshold. The treaty allows for the potential of reducing Earth’s temperature after a period of “overshoot,” emphasizing the need for sustained efforts to address climate change.
