Surge in Pet Ownership Amid Declining Birth Rates
China’s pet population is projected to nearly double the number of young children by 2030, as many young Chinese adults remain hesitant to start families, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs.
Shifting demographics
Goldman Sachs’ research, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics, forecasts that the urban pet population will surpass 70 million by the end of the decade, while the number of children aged four and under will drop below 40 million. This marks a significant shift from 2017, when there were 90 million children under four compared to approximately 40 million urban pets.
“We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation,” noted Valerie Zhou, an equity analyst at Goldman Sachs.
Declining birth rates
The report highlights that new births in China are expected to decline at an average rate of 4.2% until 2030. This decline is primarily attributed to a shrinking population of women aged 20 to 35 and a general reluctance among younger generations to have children.
As of 2023, individuals between the ages of 23 and 33 constituted nearly half of the pet owners in China, according to the China Pet Industry White Paper.
Economic implications
With a growing preference for pets over children among young Chinese adults, Goldman Sachs predicts the country’s pet food market will expand into a $12 billion industry by 2030. Additionally, the report anticipates that cat ownership will outpace dog ownership, given the lower space requirements for raising cats.
This trend in China mirrors a broader global decline in birth rates as women choose to have fewer children. Notably, China’s population decreased for the second consecutive year in 2023, falling by 2.08 million to 1.41 billion people. Although new marriages in China increased by 12.4% in 2023, more than half of the population aged 25 to 29 remains unmarried, with late marriages becoming increasingly common.
Comparative insights
The report also draws comparisons with Japan, where the pet population of about 20 million was nearly four times the number of children aged four and under as of 2022, based on data from the Japan Pet Food Association and Euromonitor.