China calls its Covid response a ‘miracle in human history’, but the data says otherwise

China calls its Covid response a ‘miracle in human history', but the data says otherwise

After a sudden easing of its “zero-Covid” policy late last year, China has declared a “big and decisive triumph” in its control of the coronavirus pandemic that has swept the nation in recent months. The assessment was reached by the top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party on Thursday during a closed-door meeting presided by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. This is the latest indication that the nation is attempting to reduce the political repercussions of zero-Covid. The long-standing policy had caused a great deal of unhappiness, including infrequent statewide protests before it was abruptly ended in December amid mounting economic costs.

The group claimed that China had maintained the lowest Covid-19 fatality rate in the world

Rapid reversal of strict disease controls led to an upsurge in cases, overtaxing hospitals and sending people rushing for basic medications. But, the outbreak appears to have waned in recent weeks, as seen by government statistics that indicate visits to fever clinics have dropped from a peak in late December to levels that are below that of the time before restrictions were eased.

According to a statement provided by the state-run news agency Xinhua, the Politburo Standing Committee stated during its meeting on Thursday that the hugely populous country had “made a miracle in human history” by “effectively pulling through a pandemic.”

The group claimed, according to the summary, that China had maintained the lowest Covid-19 fatality rate in the world. China’s top leadership bragged about this statistic throughout the pandemic as a result of the country’s lockdowns, enforced quarantines, and border controls that kept the country’s case numbers—and fatalities—low in comparison to some other major economies. Nevertheless, experts claim that the evaluation, the first from China’s top authorities since the outbreak’s apparent decline in cases, only serves to highlight the significant uncertainties surrounding the outbreak’s effects on the nation.

The country has officially reported more than 80,000 fatalities since the end of zero-Covid

China has officially reported more than 80,000 fatalities since the end of zero-Covid; this number includes individuals who were tested for Covid-19 and died in a hospital but does not include those who were untested or those who perished at home during the virus’s peak. Because testing stalled and many patients were probably to have avoided hospitals, the number of those excluded might be significant, according to specialists.

“There are still many questions about the death toll in China due to Covid – it might be useful if they could release more information, particularly about the all-cause deaths compared to the pre-Covid years,” said virologist Jin Dongyan, a professor at the University of Hong Kong’s School of Biomedical Sciences, pointing to one method for assessing a more complete picture of fatalities in the country.

The World Health Organization has also criticized China for its lack of data transparency during the outbreak, notably its earlier and more restrictive definition of a Covid-19 death, which Chinese health officials modified in January. Further raising concerns about how authorities determined the undisclosed Covid fatality rate, which experts say is typically measured by dividing the number of deaths over the total number of cases, is the fact that it is unclear how many people were infected overall since China relaxed the zero-Covid policy.

Over 80% of people in China have already contracted the disease

Late last year, as the country’s large Covid-19 mass testing infrastructure, was being destroyed and people were being permitted to test and recover at home, Chinese health authorities ceased disclosing data on so-called asymptomatic cases nationwide.

Over 80% of people in China have already contracted the disease, according to Wu Zunyou, the top epidemiologist for the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), who posted the information on his personal social media account in late January. According to the most recent CDC reporting, reported death rates have also decreased, with China reporting only 912 hospital deaths for the week of February 3–9. The report also states that the number of fatalities peaked on January 4 with a total of 4,273 deaths that day.

According to Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, giving the public a more thorough picture of the outbreak and the death toll may not serve the government’s objectives in comforting the public about their handling of the virus.

Huang pointed to several international reports, based on modeling, which have placed the actual death toll at upwards of 1 million over the past two months. “You can’t expect the government to admit to this (scale),” he said, “because people are going to ask the question – how could we have paid so much economic and social cost (from zero-Covid) to essentially come up with an outcome that is equal if not worse to the (toll in the) US.”

Huang claimed that since the outbreak seems to be subsiding, Chinese leaders were instead grabbing the opportunity to regain control of the story.

“People’s lives are returning to normal, and the viral wave comes to an end, so that kind of uncertainty is no longer there”

“People’s lives are returning to normal, and the viral wave comes to an end, so that kind of uncertainty (about the outbreak) is no longer there, and there is a need to reconcile the contradictory narrative, the credit crisis that the abrupt policy U-turn created,” Huang said, referring to the shift in official tone as China swiftly adjusted from warning about the dangers of the virus and the need to contain it to allowing it to spread. “This is the perfect time to say that the outcome justified the decision,” Huang said.

As in other nations, there are indications that China’s population has extensive natural immunity; nevertheless, scientists caution that this does not mean the virus is no longer present or that China’s healthcare systems are ready to handle potential future outbreaks brought on by probable new strains. According to the Xinhua summary of the Politburo Standing Committee meeting, the body “urged all localities and departments to optimize related mechanisms and measures, strengthen the medical service system,” and called for planning the upcoming round of vaccinations and improving medical supplies. It also mentioned the need to continue to support health care.

Even if there were indications that the most recent surge was mostly ended, Jin from the University of Hong Kong concurred that China needed to maintain its preparations. He declared, “Covid is still here and will be with us for a very long time.” “They still face the new problem of bolstering the healthcare system after this disaster.”

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