North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said this week’s missile test demonstrated that his country would not hesitate to launch a nuclear attack if an enemy provoked it with strategic weapons, as observers say he is moving to operationalize such forces.
Analysts say Kim’s remarks are the latest in a series of statements and legislative changes that outline an expansive, ambiguous, and potentially destabilizing doctrine. Here’s what we know about North Korea’s stated plans to use nuclear weapons.
When might North Korea make use of Its Nuclear Weapons?
North Korea claims that it opposes war and that its nuclear weapons are for self-defense in the face of “hostile” policies from Washington, South Korea, and Japan.
Kim stated in a speech at a military parade last year that his nuclear force was tasked with deterring war and potentially carrying out strikes against anyone who violated the North’s “fundamental interests.”
Analysts said the comments appeared to mirror language in the United States’ Nuclear Posture Review, which states that nuclear weapons will be used to defend the country’s “vital interests” or those of its allies.
North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself in a new law in September 2022.
The threat of an imminent nuclear strike, the threat to the country’s leadership, people, or existence, or gaining the upper hand during a war are all scenarios that could lead to a nuclear attack.
Kim has “all decisive powers” over nuclear weapons under the law, but if the command-and-control system is threatened, missiles may be launched “automatically.”
According to state media, the new law prohibits the sharing of nuclear arms or technology with other countries and is intended to reduce the risk of nuclear war by preventing miscalculations among nuclear weapon states and the misuse of nuclear weapons.
Analysts warn that if Kim delegated launch authority to lower commanders during a crisis, it could increase the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation.
North Korea also passed a constitutional amendment in September 2023 to enshrine its nuclear policy, with Kim promising to speed up the production of nuclear weapons to deter what he called US provocations.
North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun Nam stated in July that deployment of US aircraft carriers, bombers, or missile submarines in South Korea could meet the criteria for nuclear weapons use.
Where Might North Korea Look?
North Korea’s foreign ministry threatened a nuclear strike on “the heart of the US” in 2017, the year it launched its first successful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) if Washington showed even the “slightest sign of attempting to remove our supreme leadership.”
North Korea also threatened to sink Japan in the sea with nuclear weapons that year.
Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister, issued a statement in 2022 warning that the North would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if attacked by South Korea.
Kim Yo Jong outlined a detailed scenario in which the North used nuclear forces to “completely dampen the enemy’s war spirits, prevent protracted hostilities, and preserve one’s own military muscle” in response to a South Korean attack.
What are North Korea’s weapons?
North Korea has not conducted nuclear tests since 2017, but analysts believe it has continued to produce uranium and plutonium for warheads.
According to an April study by the Institute for Science and International Security, Pyongyang could have between 31 and 96 nuclear weapons, depending on the type of devices it is developing.
Kim stated in 2021 that North Korea could “miniaturize, lighten, and standardize nuclear weapons.” He stated that the country would “exponentially expand” its nuclear arsenal and “mass produce” tactical nuclear weapons in January 2023.
Pyongyang has also developed new nuclear-delivery missiles, including massive liquid- and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles with the range to reach the United States, short-range missiles to deliver tactical warheads, and its first nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
The use of the term “launch drill” rather than “test firing” to describe an ICBM launch this week suggested that North Korea is ready to mass-produce and deploy Hwasong-18 ICBMs. Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea expert at the Sejong Institute near Seoul, stated in a commentary on Tuesday.
“Next year, North Korea will carry on its power for power posture by testing solid-fuel IRBMs, and SLBMs from strategic nuclear attack submarines and developing multi-warhead ICBMs,” he wrote.