The past weeks have reminded us that Russia is still capable of delivering concentrated blows to the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. While throughout much of the winter, Russia oscillated between targeting the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, military positions, terrorizing civilian populations, and the energy sector, now the occupiers have decided to focus on the latter two—attacking civilians and the energy sector.
According to their twisted logic, this seems quite logical—intimidate and demoralize, with the expectation that Ukrainian society will “crumble.” I am confident that this calculation will fail just as their initial plan of capturing Kyiv “in three days” did. But they are still capable of causing problems for us.
This wave of energy attacks is characterized by a changed tactic by the Russians: now they are targeting the same objects multiple times in a row, attempting not so much to “finish off” transformers, distribution stations, or power units, but to harm those specialists who carry out emergency or repair work. This tactic is especially dangerous in regions where the Russians have concentrated their main attacks—Kharkiv region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Odesa, and Mykolaiv. Additionally, Russians attempt to damage the network that provides electricity imports from the European Union, which helps stabilize the energy grid during periods of generation deficit.
The attacks in March forced Ukrainian energy workers to resort to emergency and stabilization shutdowns, on such a large scale for the first time since the summer of 2023. Ukrainians once again need to demonstrate civic responsibility and consume electricity carefully. It is entirely possible that if the attacks continue and Western assistance (especially from the US) continues to be delayed, stabilization shutdowns will temporarily affect the entire country. However, the collapse of the Ukrainian energy sector is neither imminent nor impending.
We won’t delve into the motives of the Russians, as seeking logic or rational motives in the actions of terrorists is quite futile—their main goal will always be to inflict pain and demoralize. And how they explain it—doesn’t matter. Let’s focus on what we and our partners need to do.
First and foremost, right now, it’s crucial to strengthen the Air Defense Forces. Ukraine has a significant amount of foreign weaponry, which is used alongside Soviet-era models, but the country needs more—and this currently critically depends on American congressmen. In addition to Western aid, mobile Air Defense groups are helping to combat Russian drones and missiles—strengthening them is ongoing. So, we await good news from Washington.
Secondly, intensifying strikes on Russian territory. Some see the reasons for the intensified attacks on energy as Ukraine systematically “hitting” the Russian oil refining industry. But, I reiterate, rationalizing the actions of terrorists is senseless—they kill and undermine because they can. And if strikes on refineries are painful for them—Ukraine should continue. The higher the losses for Russia, the greater the cost for Putin’s entourage, which earns from oil and gas—the sooner the war will end.
Thirdly, Ukraine needs to continue the policy of decentralizing energy supply and further integration into the European energy network. In November 2023, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) increased Ukraine’s supply capabilities by 500 MW to 1,700 MW. These capacities allowed for an increase in energy exports during periods of stability, and now, stabilization is achieved through imports.
Fourthly, this year local authorities should invest in or attract financing and investment for the decentralization of heat production and energy efficiency. Decentralization will reduce the vulnerability of large cities to centralized energy supply and allow compensation for losses from individual generation centers by mutual insurance. For example, we can use the Scandinavian experience—currently, in Sweden, most buildings and social infrastructure facilities are heated and cooled using heat pump stations. The raw material for such stations is the potential of water, atmosphere, and land. For instance, the station in Stockholm provides heat to 400 thousand city residents. The number of energy consumers generated by heat pumps continues to grow here, as they are quite efficient and reduce the harmful impact on the environment. At the moment, Sweden has over 700,000 heat pumps. To encourage our cities and enterprises to invest more in modern energy, we can currently attract grants and loans from the World Bank and European energy funds.
Fifthly, systematic work by the Government is essential—Ukraine needs a 10-20-year energy conservation strategy. Some might argue that thinking this far ahead is “not timely.” However, beginning the implementation of such a program now— including leveraging external resources within the framework of the European “Green Deal”—will allow us to start reducing heat and electricity consumption now and help the country in the short term. The energy conservation program should include incentives and accessible insulation programs, emission reduction initiatives, transitioning public transport to electricity and biofuels, allocating subsidies for the cultivation of energy forests, and waste recycling and environmentally friendly incineration.
Lastly, sixthly, significant investments in domestic extraction and green energy can greatly enhance our energy security. To increase gas production, build wind and solar power plants, we need funds from Western and Eastern investors. And again, we come back to guarantees for business security, including energy security.
Yes, it’s always best to think strategically, even in times of short-term challenges. Addressing immediate challenges while thinking, planning, and implementing a strategy based on the best practices of decentralization and energy conservation will allow us to reduce the impact of Russian terrorist attacks on our daily lives and significantly expand the long-term possibilities of Ukrainian energy and ecology.
Alexander Katsuba is a Ukrainian entrepreneur, an expert in the energy sector, and the owner of the company ALPHA GAZ.