It’s election season. Elections will be held in 2024 in countries that are home to nearly half of the world’s population, something that has never happened in a single year before. More than two billion people in 50 countries are expected to vote this year.
Beginning with Bangladesh on January 7, the polls will include seven of the world’s ten most populous countries: India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, and Mexico.
Some are established democracies, others are developing democracies, and still others are effectively autocracies with votes but few real options for voters to choose from.
Nonetheless, amid growing concerns that democracies as a whole are slipping – concerns articulated by organizations such as Sweden’s V-Dem Institute and the US-based Freedom House – the elections in this diverse group of countries represent a watershed year for the concept of democracy itself, according to Johns Hopkins University cultural and political sociologist Andrew Perrin.
Experts say the threats to democracy are real, ranging from increased ethnic violence to steps aimed at weakening judicial and other checks on the executive’s power. However, Perrin pointed out that there are countervailing pressures. According to public opinion polls, democracy remains popular.
This is supported by a survey of over 36, 000 respondents from 30 countries conducted by Open Society Foundations in 2023. More than 80% of those polled said they wanted to live in a democracy.
That appeal is now facing its most difficult test in a single year. Here are ten key elections in 2024 that will shape the world and democracy’s future.
10 key elections in 2024 that could define the world order
1. Bangladesh
After a harsh crackdown on opposition parties and activists, incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seeking a fifth term in office.
Hasina, an Awami League member, has been in power since 2009. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition, has boycotted the elections, citing government meddling. It had demanded that the election be conducted by a caretaker government, which the Awami League government had rejected. The BNP’s top leadership is either imprisoned or living in exile.
“Bangladesh’s 2024 election can become the most consequential election in the history of the country,” said Ali Riaz, chair of the Department of Politics and Government at Illinois State University. “The country is standing at the crossroads of becoming a de facto one-party state and reversing its [democratic] course.”
Bangladesh is home to 170 million people. More than 1,800 people will run for 300 seats in Bangladesh’s national parliament. There are a total of 27 political parties that have registered.
2. Taiwan
Self-ruled Taiwan will elect its president on January 13. The president will succeed incumbent Tsai Ing-Wen and lead Taiwan through a critical period in its history.
Tsai was elected president of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2016. Since then, China has increased pressure on the island by conducting military exercises around it and encouraging Taiwan’s few remaining formal diplomatic allies to switch recognition to Beijing.
Lai Ching-te of the DPP, who is known to be more independent-minded than Tsai, moderate Kuomintang leader Hou You-yi, and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party are the three candidates running for president.
The stakes are high, as China has warned that if the DPP remains in power, there is a risk of war. While the DPP’s Lai is the frontrunner, his opponents argue that the ruling party’s stance risks putting Taiwan’s security at risk in the form of a possible war.
3. Pakistan
Pakistan, which holds elections for its national legislature on February 8, has been dealing with a tumultuous political landscape since former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was elected in July 2018, was deposed in an April 2022 no-confidence vote.
An intense crackdown on his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and political activists has raised questions about the election’s credibility, as well as the role of the country’s all-powerful military establishment.
A caretaker government is currently in charge of the country, led by interim Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar. According to data released by the election commission in September 2023, it has a population of more than 241 million people and 127 million registered voters.
4. Indonesia
In February, Indonesians will vote for their president, vice president, and nearly 20,000 representatives to district, provincial, and national legislatures in the world’s largest single-day election.
Although free and fair elections have been widely celebrated in Indonesia since the country’s democratic transition in 1998, the country’s democracy remains dominated by political, business, and military figures who rose to prominence during Soeharto’s authoritarian rule.
5. India
Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was sworn in as India’s 14th prime minister in the spring of 2014. A decade later, he appears to be on track to win a third consecutive term in what will be history’s largest-ever democratic exercise, with 900 million people voting for their next government.
A coalition of 28 parties called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is running against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. In India, the main opposition party is led by Rahul Gandhi, whose father (Rajiv Gandhi), grandmother (Indira Gandhi), and great-grandfather (Jawaharlal Nehru) were all prime ministers.
Under Modi, India’s economy has surpassed that of France and the United Kingdom in size. India also hosted the G20 summit and became the fourth country to successfully land on the moon.
6. South Africa
South Africa is set to hold its seventh national election between May and August, following the end of apartheid in 1994. South Africa has a population of 60 million people, with approximately 27 million registered voters.
The African National Congress (ANC) has held uninterrupted power since 1994, but supporters are concerned that the party’s votes will fall short of the 50% required to win this year. According to an October 2023 Social Research Foundation poll, the ANC’s support has dropped to 45 percent, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa.
7. Mexico
Mexico is preparing for its largest-ever election on June 2, which could result in the country electing a woman as president for the first time. Mexico has a population of approximately 129 million people and 96 million registered voters.
For the first time, elections will be held in all 32 Mexican states at the same time, with candidates vying for 20,000 positions including the presidency, congressional seats, governorships, and local offices.
8 European Union
Every five years, European Union (EU) citizens vote to elect their representatives to the European Parliament (EP), the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly. These elections are held in all 27 EU member countries.
Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) draft and vote on new laws governing various aspects of life in the EU, ranging from healthcare to employment. MEPs also elect the European Commission President, who is currently Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s first female president.
The elections will be held between June 6 and June 9. Election days are divided by country. The Netherlands, for example, holds elections on a Thursday, whereas France holds them on a Sunday.
9. The United States
On November 5, the United States will vote for its president, all House seats, and one-third of Senate seats.
The presidential race this year appears to be reminiscent of the 2020 election when Democrat Joe Biden faced off against Republican Donald Trump, whom he defeated four years ago.
Despite multiple indictments and his absence from all Republican debates thus far, Trump has a massive lead over Republican rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
10. Ghana
Ghana will go to the polls on December 7 to elect members of the country’s parliament as well as the successor to New Patriotic Party (NPP) President Nana Akufo-Addo.
After winning the 2016 elections, Akufo-Addo of the center-right and liberal-conservative NPP was sworn in as president in 2017. He was re-elected in 2020 and sworn in for a second term in 2021. He narrowly defeated John Mahama of the social democratic National Democratic Congress (NDC) in both of these elections.
