Hurricane Milton’s explosive surge in power has been attributed to unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, marking it as the third-fastest intensifying Atlantic storm on record, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. As scientists increasingly link climate change to the rising intensity of storms, Milton’s rapid development is seen as part of a disturbing trend.
Rising ocean temperatures fuel storm strength
A hurricane draws its strength from the heat in surface waters. As the water temperature increases, so does the potential fuel for a storm. Climate change has led to the ocean absorbing 90% of the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions over the past 40 years.
This year, 2024, is projected to be the warmest on record, with global air temperatures soaring to unprecedented levels. In the last year, global temperatures have risen by 1.62 degrees Celsius (2.92 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported.
This warming directly influences the power of storms like Milton, which went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than a day. The classification of hurricane strength is based on sustained wind speeds, with a Category 1 storm reaching speeds of 74-95 mph (119-153 kph) and a Category 5 storm exceeding 157 mph (252 kph).
What is rapid intensification?
Milton’s rapid intensification, a phenomenon where wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph (56 kph) within 24 hours, has alarmed scientists. On Monday, the hurricane’s wind speeds more than doubled the threshold for rapid intensification, making it one of the most rapidly intensifying storms ever observed in the Atlantic.
“The Gulf’s warm water, combined with favorable air conditions, made Milton’s rapid intensification almost inevitable,” said Gregory Foltz, a physical oceanographer with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
A 2023 study published in Scientific Reports showed that Atlantic storms are now more than twice as likely to intensify from Category 1 to Category 3 within 36 hours compared to past decades. While Gulf storms have shown less extreme shifts, the overall pattern of intensification is becoming more pronounced.
NOAA data reveals that Gulf of Mexico waters reached record highs of around 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) during the past two summers.
Just weeks before Milton’s formation, the Gulf hit its warmest temperatures for mid-September on record. “Watching Milton’s rapid intensification in real time was staggering,” said Andra Garner, lead author of the Scientific Reports study and a climate expert at Rowan University. Garner’s analysis, shared with Reuters, placed Milton’s 12-hour and 24-hour intensification rates in the 99th percentile of all observed Atlantic storms.
The growing threat of rapid Intensification
While hurricanes can already cause widespread destruction, rapid intensification poses an additional threat, especially when it occurs close to land. When storms intensify quickly, coastal communities have little time to prepare or evacuate, which can lead to devastating consequences.
While Milton’s power-up was stunning, it occurred while the storm was still days from making landfall, giving Florida communities a chance to evacuate on Tuesday.
However, sudden intensification near shore, as seen with last year’s Hurricane Otis in Mexico, can catch communities off guard. Otis transformed from a weak tropical storm into a powerful Category 5 hurricane just hours before striking Acapulco, resulting in dozens of deaths. Hurricane Milton is now compared to the most rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes, including Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007, both Category 5 storms.
A 2022 study in Geophysical Research Letters found that the rate of near-shore hurricane intensification in the Atlantic has “increased significantly” between 1979 and 2018.
While Gulf storms have not shown a similar pattern of near-shore intensification, scientists remain concerned about the broader trend of more frequent and intense storms driven by climate change. As the planet continues to warm, experts warn that rapid intensification will likely become a more common and dangerous feature of future hurricanes, underscoring the urgent need for better preparedness and climate action.