For the first time, nearly 200 countries committed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” at the latest UN climate change conference in Dubai.
COP28 negotiators have called it a “historic” and “landmark” agreement for global efforts to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
However, many climate scientists are skeptical of its impact, and others are skeptical of the COP process in general.
Key terms used in COP agreements
- Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, form naturally in the Earth’s crust from dead plants and animals. They contain hydrocarbons, which can be extracted and used to generate heat and electricity.
- Fossil fuel subsidies are defined as any action taken by a government to reduce the cost of fossil fuel production or energy consumer prices. The International Monetary Fund estimated in 2022 that they were worth 7.1% of global GDP, or $7 trillion (£5.6 trillion).
- Net zero occurs when global greenhouse gas emissions equal what we remove from the atmosphere. It is not the same as ‘carbon neutral,’ a term frequently used by businesses to imply a concerted effort to reduce carbon emissions while offsetting those that are produced.
- Carbon capture is a technology that traps carbon dioxide emitted by fossil fuels and stores it underground to prevent it from harming the environment.
- Unabated fossil fuels are those where no attempt has been made to reduce their emissions through techniques such as carbon capture and storage.
What does the COP28 deal promise?
- Transitioning away from fossil fuels in our energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, beginning this decade, to reach net zero by 2050, by science.
- Rapidly phasing out unabated coal and limiting new and unabated coal power generation permits.
- By 2030, the world’s renewable energy capacity will have tripled, and the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvement will have doubled.
- Accelerating global efforts toward net zero emissions energy systems that use zero and low-carbon fuels before or around mid-century
- Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, such as renewables, nuclear, abatement, and removal technologies, such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, particularly in difficult-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production, to boost efforts toward the replacement of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.
- Reduce non-CO2 emissions significantly, particularly methane emissions, globally by 2030.
- Accelerating emissions reductions from road transportation through a variety of means, including infrastructure development and the rapid deployment of zero-emission vehicles,.
- As soon as possible, phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or simply transition.
What does the COP28 deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels mean?
The phrase “transitioning away” was eventually chosen over “phase out” or “phase down” in the agreement’s clause on fossil fuels after much deliberation.
According to Professor David Reay, an expert in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission, this means that renewable energy will grow and gradually replace fossil fuels across all global energy systems.
He explained that, unlike “phase out,” there is no set end point for “transition,” with the language chosen to accommodate countries that are still heavily reliant on fossil fuels and lack the economic means to adapt as quickly as others.
Professor Ilan Kelman of University College London, an expert in disasters and health, adds that most countries, including the United Kingdom and the United States, have been “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for decades.
“This is simply the international community saying we agree that we are transitioning and will continue to transition.
“But what does it mean? Not a lot unless we act on it. It’s just legal terminology. We’ve had similar wording in agreements before that hasn’t been acted on.”
The term “phase out” was used for a coal clause at COP26 in Glasgow, but it has arguably been diluted to “phase down” and “unabated coal” this year, implying that coal production can continue.