Breezy Explainer: What is the ’15-minute city’ conspiracy theory?

Breezy Explainer: What is the '15-minute city' conspiracy theory?

The concept of a “15-minute city” has two very distinct perspectives. Some view it as an urban planning idea that encourages healthy and sustainable living. Others believe it to be a “tyrannical bureaucrats” scheme to seize our cars and run our lives, which might result in a real-life Hunger Games scenario. Conspiracy theorists are now attacking the field of urban planning, with protests against the 15-minute city concept erupting worldwide, following ludicrous claims about lizard people, 5G, and COVID-19 vaccinations.

15-minute cities were once the standard. They were referred to as good neighborhoods

“I’ve been doing [urban planning] for a long time, but I’ve never seen something like this,” urbanist and Vancouver’s former chief planner Brent Toderian stated. Toderian, who has lobbied for the idea internationally including in Australia, sums up: “It’s a bit surreal.”

According to the 15-minute city urban planning idea, neighborhoods should offer inhabitants access to all of their fundamental needs, including shops, schools, parks, recreational opportunities, and health care, within a 15-minute walking or bicycling distance.

“15-minute cities were once the standard. They were referred to as good neighborhoods because there was no need to drive everywhere,” says Toderian. Since the middle of the 20th century, cities have been primarily constructed around vehicles rather than walking and bicycling, which has frequently led to car dependence and urban sprawl. One solution for this is suggested: the 15-minute city.

“There are so many public interest reasons to want to do this. It’s kind of a no-brainer,” Toderian says. “Your carbon footprint is a lot lower, so it’s a powerful climate change mitigation tool … It promotes urban health and thus promotes the actual reduction of public health costs … It promotes individual affordability and household affordability because you don’t need to own the second car or maybe even the third car.” Many cities have taken up the idea — or a variation of the idea — in recent years.

Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo made the 15-minute city a key component of her 2020 reelection campaign

“Melbourne was one of the world’s originators of the idea of applying time to our neighborhoods – the amount of time it takes for us to get to the thing that we need or wants every day,” Toderian points out, something the city continues to embrace. The idea has been called many things, like “complete communities”, “mixed-use communities”, “the city of short distances”, the slightly different “20-minute neighborhood” or as Toderian, as chief planner of Vancouver, used to call it “the power of nearness”.

But it wasn’t until Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo made the 15-minute city a key component of her 2020 reelection campaign that it truly gained international notoriety. She saw the future as being centered on bicycles and pedestrians. She was elected again. “Cities around the world — mayors, politicians started talking about this very old, normal concept of why do we have to drive to everything? Why can’t we have more choices and more freedom to choose rather than just having only one choice: The car,” Toderian says.

Cities began to develop plans and put the 15-minute city concept into practice, adding more bike lanes, making more space for pedestrians, and restricting where automobiles could travel.

As NSW minister Rob Stokes put it last year: “The pandemic has seen demand for walking and cycling infrastructure soar, and outdoor spaces valued more than ever. Our vision for 15-minute neighborhoods will also improve health and wellbeing outcomes, and ensure local communities thrive.” But then the pushback started.

The criticism of the “15-minute city” idea is that it is largely fiction rather than factual

The criticism of the “15-minute city” idea is that it is largely fiction rather than factual. The arguments begin with the notion that restricting car use represents an overreach of government and a violation of personal freedom, even if, as Toderian points out, “ironically, it’s providing more choice.” It then becomes, well, odd from there. Promoting bicycle and pedestrian access is presented as a step towards establishing open-air prisons managed by the government.

One British TikToker says authorities are planning to “divide up towns, cities, etc … and you’re going to have to apply for a f**king permit to leave your zone”. Spoiler: Not true. According to a tweet from controversial Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson: “The idea that neighborhoods should be walkable is lovely. The idea that idiot tyrannical bureaucrats can decide by fiat where you’re ‘allowed’ to drive is perhaps the worst imaginable perversion of that idea — and, make no mistake, it’s part of a well-documented plan.”

Which “plan”? The World Economic Forum has also supported the idea of a 15-minute metropolis, raising suspicions that it is a component of a larger global plan for centralization and control. “The lies range from small lies like ‘they’re going to not want you to drive [at all]’ to big lies — literally using terms like ‘they want to turn your neighborhood into a concentration camp’ that ‘your life is going to be like the Hunger Games, where there are different sectors that you’ll be representing’,” Toderian says.

With the help of penalties and traffic cameras, the UK city of Oxford is attempting to reduce the number of cars on key roadways

It’s even made it into the UK parliament, with one MP calling the idea an “international socialist concept” that “will cost us our personal freedom”.

Real-world protests have resulted from these beliefs. For instance, the Canadian city of Edmonton recently adopted 15-minute city plans, which the city claims “moves us closer to our vision for a more connected, economic, healthier, and climate-resilient city.” The plan has sparked opposition, with protest leaders falsely asserting that “you would spend 90% of your life in this 15-minute area while they are monitoring your “carbon footprint”.” With the help of penalties and traffic cameras, the UK city of Oxford is attempting to reduce the number of cars on key roadways. The so-called “climate lockdowns” were protested as a result, and council members there have received death threats.

Many people in urban planning have been resisting in recent months, including Toderian. He becomes increasingly frustrated as he continues to discuss the recurring responses to the idea of a 15-minute metropolis. The sensible communal debate over the future of towns and cities might be the largest casualty.

“I’m not an anti-car guy. I’m an anti-car-dependency guy. We can’t keep planning cities and regions where the car is the only choice, because that may seem like freedom to some but it’s kind of the opposite. Dependency is never freedom,” Toderian says. “There’s always going to be a debate in city planning. Always. But there’s good faith debate, based on disagreements, and then there’s deliberate lies and misinformation. “If we’re going to have a real debate, discussion and democracy, and good decision making, truth is a necessity — it’s a necessary starting point to make good decisions.”

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