Finlandization is a policy of strict neutrality between Russia and the West. Here’s how the policy that Finland followed during the cold war will help in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Very soon, it will be a month since Russia started invading Ukraine. However, despite several attempts at peace talks between representatives from both sides, a clear end to war is not in sight. Russia is using the threat of Ukraine joining NATO as a reason for invading. However, the Ukrainian President admitted last week that Ukraine will not be joining the military alliance. Among several models of peace, Finlandization is one policy that could potentially work. According to reports, French President Emmanuel Macron is the first to suggest it.
What is Finlandization?
Finlandization is a policy of strict neutrality between Russia and the West. Its principal is rooted in the YYA Treaty or Ystävyys-, yhteistyö- ja avunantosopimus in Finnish. It is an agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. Finland signed the treaty with the USSR back in April 1948. “In the eventuality of Finland, or the Soviet Union through Finnish territory, becoming the object of an armed attack by Germany or any state allied with the latter (meaning, essentially, the United States), Finland will, true to its obligations as an independent state, fight to repel the attack,” states the first article of the treaty.
“Finland will in such cases use all its available forces for defending its territorial integrity by land, sea, and air, and will do so within the frontiers of Finland in accordance with obligations defined in the present agreement and, if necessary, with the assistance of or jointly with, the Soviet Union. In (these) cases, the Soviet Union will give Finland the help that it requires, subject to mutual agreement between the contracting parties,” it adds. The treaty was the main pillar of Helsinki-Moscow relations until the early 1990s when Finland and post-Soviet Russia signed a new agreement.
Will this policy work for Ukraine?
Finlandization can help in the current Ukraine crisis. It first came up when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. In an op-ed article, former US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger summarised his opinions on the matter. It was published in the Washington Post back in March 2014. Arguing that “if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other. It should function as a bridge between them”. The first three points are highly relevant to the current crisis but, the third is explicitly advocating Finlandization for Ukraine. The points are:
- Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.
- It should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago when it last came up.
- Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country. Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia.
Expert’s opinion on Finlandization
“The US could and should convey clearly to Putin that it is prepared to use its influence to make certain that a truly independent and territorially undivided Ukraine pursues policies towards Russia similar to those so effectively practiced by Finland: mutually respectful neighbors, wide-ranging economic relations both with Russia and the EU, but no participation in any military alliance viewed by Moscow as directed at itself – while also expanding its European connectivity. In brief, the Finnish model as the ideal example for Ukraine, and the EU, and Russia,” recommended Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski was the US National Security Advisor between 1977 and 1981. Additionally, he was a prominent figure in shaping the Cold War American foreign policy.