A new report measuring the economic effects of climate change predicts global income to be 19% lower than it would be without global warming over the next 25 years.
The new study, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature, examined 40 years of climate-related effects on global GDP to forecast what sustained climate change might entail for future economic development. According to the study, “the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years, independent of future emission choices.”
The report projects that global warming will result in an annual decrease of about $38 trillion in global income through 2049
The report projects that global warming will result in an annual decrease of about $38 trillion in global income through 2049. While the average income in countries like the United States or Germany could decrease by 11%, and by 13% in France, however, the expected overall growth in global GDP is likely to still translate to individual income growth in many, if not most, cases.
According to researchers, the most significant economic threat is likely to result not from the direct damage of individual extreme events like hurricanes or wildfires, but from the gradual rise in average temperatures.
This increase can have widespread effects on labor productivity and crop yields. The lead author of the study, Max Kotz, explained to The Associated Press that the overall impacts are primarily driven by average warming and general temperature increases.
These temperature rises are expected to cause the most significant damages in the future because they are unprecedented compared to historical experiences. The study indicates that poorer countries will experience greater declines in their average incomes compared to wealthier nations. Generally, regions closer to the equator will face the most severe impacts, while certain areas near the poles may experience an average benefit.
The anticipated harm is described as “committed,” meaning it is based on historical emissions that cannot be reversed, as well as on the plausible trajectories for future emissions over the next 25 years.
The projected economic damage already exceeds the estimated cost of a global effort to mitigate emissions and keep global warming below a 2-degree Celsius threshold. However, the researchers argue that working to limit this damage still makes economic sense, especially in the latter half of the century, when the impacts of climate change are expected to become much more pronounced.
The research team stated, “Damage estimates diverge strongly across emission scenarios after 2049, conveying the clear benefits of mitigation from a purely economic point of view that have been emphasized in previous studies.”
