An Iranian strike on Pakistan earlier this week sparked a swift military response, raising worries of further regional upheaval. The strikes come at a time when tensions have skyrocketed throughout the Middle East.
Iran and Pakistan have a violent border spanning around 900 kilometers and have long fought Baloch militants in the region. The Baloch people live in the intersection of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. Historically, they have shown a great desire for independence, resenting being dominated by both Islamabad and Tehran. Terrorism has continued in the porous border region for many decades.
Despite the region’s richness of natural resources, Baloch separatists claim that their communities, which are among the poorest in the area, have received little benefit. Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province in terms of land size, has seen several devastating attacks in recent years. These episodes are the result of a long-running insurgency led by separatists seeking independence. Their dissatisfaction derives from what they see as the state’s monopoly and exploitation of the region’s mineral resources.
Unusual cross-border strikes amid Middle East tensions and Gaza conflict
While Iran and Pakistan have a shared separatist adversary, it is extremely rare for any side to target militants on the other’s territory. The latest assaults came as Iran’s allies in the Middle East launched attacks against Israeli forces and supporters during the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Iran sent shockwaves through the region on Tuesday when it launched a missile assault against what it termed as hardline Sunni Muslim terrorists in southwest Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated two days later by attacking what it claimed were “terror hideouts” in Iran, the first air strike on Iranian land since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
Tuesday’s strike was one of Iran’s most severe cross-border assaults on the terror group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan, which it claims has ties to Islamic State. Many of Jaish’s members formerly belonged to the now-defunct extremist group Jundallah, which declared allegiance to the Islamic State.
Analysts believe that Iran’s latest strike on Pakistan was motivated by domestic security concerns rather than ambitions for regional supremacy.
Pakistan claims forced action against terrorist havens in Iran
Pakistan said it had been complaining for years about terrorists having “safe havens and sanctuaries” in Iran, and was forced to take action after Thursday’s strikes.
This decision has heightened concerns about stability in the Middle East, which have been rising since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October. Iran-backed militias ranging from Yemen to Lebanon have carried out attacks against US and Israeli targets, including instances involving Red Sea shipping, in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.
However, following the tit-for-tat assaults, neither government attempted to link the Gaza war to the attacks carried out in favor of Palestinians by a network of Arab militias associated with Iran from the Mediterranean to the Gulf.
Experts argue that Iran’s activities are not isolated, but rather part of a bigger regional war in which the government appears to be taking a more proactive posture beyond its boundaries. The United States’ delicate balance of de-escalation and asserting military strength in the region may be encouraging Iran to pursue targets beyond its boundaries.
The situation is complex, with underlying border security concerns and long-standing tensions between Iran and Pakistan. Experts predict that de-escalation will be difficult in the short future due to the heightened tensions. Diplomatic diplomacy and third-party mediation, possibly from China, have been urged to help navigate the sensitive position and avert further escalation.
